Towards Early Warning Signals for Desertification

Dryland ecosystems cover a large share of the world’s terrestrial surface. Deficiency and spatio-temporal variability of precipitation as well as low vegetation growth rates make dry rangelands prone to degradation, especially under changing climate and intensified land use. Degradation often occurs gradually but sometimes, a sudden and surprising shift from a healthy to a degraded rangeland can be observed, where perennial grasses are lost, and bare soil is exposed. If such changes are sudden and irreversible, they are coined a tipping point. Due to their abrupt appearance, it is a great challenge to discover early warning signals that precede the regime shifts. Theory predicts that variance and autocorrelation in state conditions could be used as early warning signals. However, these theoretical assumptions have rarely been tested in real ecosystems. Here, we use a data-based approach to contribute to filling this research gap using desertification processes in a semi-arid rangeland as a case study. In order to test the applicability of theoretical early warning signals for tipping points, we looked at a dataset from Widou, Senegal, that includes annual observations of rainfall, grazing intensity and primary production from 1981 – 2007. We analysed productivity-based metrics, such as rain use efficiency, in order to detect patterns that may precede a shift between alternate stable states. Strong signals of a regime shift were detected that were expressed in a sudden alteration of species composition and general decline of productivity after a drought. However, we did not find any changes in the theoretically proposed parameters that may reflect early warning signals for a critical transition, i.e. the regime shift was essentially unpredictable. We suggest that while the theory around tipping points and early recognition thereof may be robust, the applicability of theoretical concepts to the real world may be challenging

Evaluating grazing response strategies in winter annuals : A multi-trait approach

Plants minimize fitness losses through grazing by three fundamental strategies: tolerance, avoidance and escape. Annual species have been traditionally assumed to escape grazing through their short life cycle and seed dormancy; however, their grazing response strategies remain almost unexplored. How traits and their coordination affect species' grazing responses, and whether the generalized grazing model, which posits convergent filtering by grazing and drought, is applicable to this ecologically and economically important species group thus remain unclear. We used a trait-based approach to evaluate grazing response strategies of winter annuals from the Middle East. Across 23 species, we examined the coordination of 16 traits hypothesized to be relevant for grazing responses, and linked them to species' fecundity responses, as proxy for fitness responses, to simulated grazing in controlled conditions, to species' abundance responses to grazing in the field and to species' distribution along a large-scale rainfall gradient. Winter annuals exhibited both grazing escape and to a lesser extent tolerance indicated by (a) independent coordination of escape and tolerance traits, and (b) maintenance of higher fecundity in species with more pronounced escape or tolerance traits under simulated grazing. In the natural habitat, species with a more pronounced escape but not tolerance strategy maintained higher abundance under grazing in dry habitats, indicating convergent favouring of escape by both grazing and drought. However, this finding at the local scale was not mirrored by a strategy shift along a large-scale rainfall gradient. Synthesis. The convergent favouring of escape traits by grazing and drought in annuals is consistent with the generalized grazing model. This model, which has been developed for perennials based on the avoidance strategy, can thus be extended to annuals based on escape, a finding that should facilitate projecting consequences of global change in drylands dominated by annuals. © 2021 The Authors. Journal of Ecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of British Ecological Societ

Evaluating grazing response strategies in winter annuals : A multi-trait approach

Plants minimize fitness losses through grazing by three fundamental strategies: tolerance, avoidance and escape. Annual species have been traditionally assumed to escape grazing through their short life cycle and seed dormancy; however, their grazing response strategies remain almost unexplored. How traits and their coordination affect species' grazing responses, and whether the generalized grazing model, which posits convergent filtering by grazing and drought, is applicable to this ecologically and economically important species group thus remain unclear. We used a trait-based approach to evaluate grazing response strategies of winter annuals from the Middle East. Across 23 species, we examined the coordination of 16 traits hypothesized to be relevant for grazing responses, and linked them to species' fecundity responses, as proxy for fitness responses, to simulated grazing in controlled conditions, to species' abundance responses to grazing in the field and to species' distribution along a large-scale rainfall gradient. Winter annuals exhibited both grazing escape and to a lesser extent tolerance indicated by (a) independent coordination of escape and tolerance traits, and (b) maintenance of higher fecundity in species with more pronounced escape or tolerance traits under simulated grazing. In the natural habitat, species with a more pronounced escape but not tolerance strategy maintained higher abundance under grazing in dry habitats, indicating convergent favouring of escape by both grazing and drought. However, this finding at the local scale was not mirrored by a strategy shift along a large-scale rainfall gradient. Synthesis. The convergent favouring of escape traits by grazing and drought in annuals is consistent with the generalized grazing model. This model, which has been developed for perennials based on the avoidance strategy, can thus be extended to annuals based on escape, a finding that should facilitate projecting consequences of global change in drylands dominated by annuals. © 2021 The Authors. Journal of Ecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of British Ecological Societ

GLOWA JR Atlas: Results of the GLOWA Jordan River Project.

Bitte die ZIP-Datei downloaden und auf Ihrem Computer entzippen und dann bei Windows-Betriebssystemen auf atlas.exe drücken. Bei Linux-Systemen machen Sie bitte die Datei start.sh ausführbar und rufen diese auf. In der Datei user_manual.pdf finden Sie Hinweise zur Nutzung des Atlas.Please download the ZIP-file and extract it on your computer. On windows operation systems click on atlas.exe. On Linux operation systems make the file start.sh executable and select it. The file user_manual.pdf is the instruction manual for using the atlas.The GLOWA Jordan River (GLOWA JR) Atlas is an end-user geographical information system (GIS). It presents the spatial results of the GLOWA JR project and helps to visualize, organize, and analyze them. The geographical scope of the atlas is Israel, Jordan and Palestine. It includes maps about climate change and its impact on water and land resources, including ecosystems, as well as information about the impact of global change on ecosystem services, land use and agriculture. Moreover it includes maps about the potential of rainwater harvesting, managed aquifer recharge and irrigation with treated wastewater

Few multiyear precipitation-reduction experiments find a shift in the productivity-precipitation relationship

Well-defined productivity–precipitation relationships of ecosystems are needed as benchmarks for the validation of land models used for future projections. The productivity–precipitation relationship may be studied in two ways: the spatial approach relates differences in productivity to those in precipitation among sites along a precipitation gradient (the spatial fit, with a steeper slope); the temporal approach relates interannual productivity changes to variation in precipitation within sites (the temporal fits, with flatter slopes). Precipitation–reduction experiments in natural ecosystems represent a complement to the fits, because they can reduce precipitation below the natural range and are thus well suited to study potential effects of climate drying. Here, we analyse the effects of dry treatments in eleven multiyear precipitation–manipulation experiments, focusing on changes in the temporal fit. We expected that structural changes in the dry treatments would occur in some experiments, thereby reducing the intercept of the temporal fit and displacing the productivity–precipitation relationship downward the spatial fit. The majority of experiments (72%) showed that dry treatments did not alter the temporal fit. This implies that current temporal fits are to be preferred over the spatial fit to benchmark land-model projections of productivity under future climate within the precipitation ranges covered by the experiments. Moreover, in two experiments, the intercept of the temporal fit unexpectedly increased due to mechanisms that reduced either water loss or nutrient loss. The expected decrease of the intercept was observed in only one experiment, and only when distinguishing between the late and the early phases of the experiment. This implies that we currently do not know at which precipitation–reduction level or at which experimental duration structural changes will start to alter ecosystem productivity. Our study highlights the need for experiments with multiple, including more extreme, dry treatments, to identify the precipitation boundaries within which the current temporal fits remain valid

Field experiments underestimate aboveground biomass response to drought

Researchers use both experiments and observations to study the impacts of climate change on ecosystems, but results from these contrasting approaches have not been systematically compared for droughts. Using a meta-analysis and accounting for potential confounding factors, we demonstrate that aboveground biomass responded only about half as much to experimentally imposed drought events as to natural droughts. Our findings indicate that experimental results may underestimate climate change impacts and highlight the need to integrate results across approaches

Global maps of soil temperature

Research in global change ecology relies heavily on global climatic grids derived from estimates of air temperature in open areas at around 2 m above the ground. These climatic grids do not reflect conditions below vegetation canopies and near the ground surface, where critical ecosystem functions occur and most terrestrial species reside. Here, we provide global maps of soil temperature and bioclimatic variables at a 1-km2 resolution for 0–5 and 5–15 cm soil depth. These maps were created by calculating the difference (i.e. offset) between in situ soil temperature measurements, based on time series from over 1200 1-km2 pixels (summarized from 8519 unique temperature sensors) across all the world\u27s major terrestrial biomes, and coarse-grained air temperature estimates from ERA5-Land (an atmospheric reanalysis by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts). We show that mean annual soil temperature differs markedly from the corresponding gridded air temperature, by up to 10°C (mean = 3.0 ± 2.1°C), with substantial variation across biomes and seasons. Over the year, soils in cold and/or dry biomes are substantially warmer (+3.6 ± 2.3°C) than gridded air temperature, whereas soils in warm and humid environments are on average slightly cooler (−0.7 ± 2.3°C). The observed substantial and biome-specific offsets emphasize that the projected impacts of climate and climate change on near-surface biodiversity and ecosystem functioning are inaccurately assessed when air rather than soil temperature is used, especially in cold environments. The global soil-related bioclimatic variables provided here are an important step forward for any application in ecology and related disciplines. Nevertheless, we highlight the need to fill remaining geographic gaps by collecting more in situ measurements of microclimate conditions to further enhance the spatiotemporal resolution of global soil temperature products for ecological applications